The Confirmation Bias, and why it's in your social media feed

Has the New York Times ruined Wordle? This is the question that went viral on Twitter earlier this year, after the popular word game was sold by its creator Josh Wardle to the New York Times in a ‘low seven-figure deal’.

With accusations that the words had become much harder, the NYT released a statement reassuring everyone that they hadn’t added any new words to Wordle but had in fact removed a few obscure words to make it easier.

So, why the fury? One theory is that people didn’t like the NYT buying their favourite game. This combined with a couple of difficult word days, and it was enough to set people off. The complaints went viral, and as people read the posts, the confirmation bias kicked in.

What is the Confirmation Bias?

The confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out and favour information that confirms one’s beliefs, while ignoring any evidence that may disprove those beliefs.

The effect is particularly strong with emotionally charged issues and deeply held beliefs.

An analysis of book-buying patterns by researcher Valdis Krebs during the 2008 US election, highlighted the confirmation bias. It was found that those who supported Obama were buying books that portrayed him in a positive light, and those that opposed him bought books that portrayed him in a negative light. People were buying the books for the information, but also the confirmation.

The confirmation bias is a big deal, as it renders people incapable of evaluating the merits of both sides of an argument. This prevents issues from being resolved and hinders the chance of a compromise.

Confirmation bias is a big issue on social media. On platforms such as Twitter and Facebook, people tend to follow other people who think like they do. In addition, predictive algorithms bring other like-minded voices to their feed, thus creating an echo chamber of confirmation bias.

Disconfirming evidence

When researching anything, whether it be an issue or an investment, we can tend to only seek out information that supports our views. We should though also seek out disconfirming information that challenges our views. This information could provide valuable insight but also prevent us from making a costly mistake.

Charlie Munger regards disconfirming evidence as a godsend. He said, ‘Most people take their initial assumptions and try to confirm them. Part of the winning game is to constantly take your initial assumptions and try to disprove them. This forces objectivity’.

Why do we have Confirmation Bias?

There are a number of theories as to why we have this bias. The first theory is that it is a mental shortcut that saves us time and mental energy.

A second theory is that it protects self-esteem by providing confirmation that we are ‘right’. A third theory is that it minimises cognitive dissonance, which is the feeling we get when we have two contradictory ideas in our head.

Pros and Cons

In 1772 Benjamin Franklin created one of the best decision-making tools ever. It’s the ‘Pros and Cons’ list, and it can protect us from the confirmation bias.

His idea was simple, divide a sheet of paper in two columns ‘Pros’ and ‘Cons’, and over 3-4 days fill out each column. Once finished, he would then consider it for a further day, and then come to a determination.

The Pros and Cons list is such a highly successful tool because it forces us to spend time to consider both sides of an argument.

How to avoid Confirmation Bias

There are several ways to avoid the confirmation bias. Here are four:

1. Awareness of it. The bias works subconsciously, so we’re naturally unaware of it.
2. Seek out disconfirming evidence. This is difficult and unnatural to do, but it can give us the winning edge. If we do this often enough it will become second nature.
3. Be open to change positions when wrong. Changing a long-held belief can be difficult, but well worthwhile if required. Objective truth should always be our goal.
4. Pros and Cons list. For big decisions such as changing jobs, or making an investment decision, do a Pros and Cons list to aid your decision. Look at the strengths and weaknesses of both sides of the argument.